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VSG’s 2024 Crystal Ball

A Look Ahead at PlayStation, Xbox, and Nintendo in 2024

Read Time: 11 minutes to read
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Good morning. Thanks for choosing to start your 2024 with VSG and joining a growing group of Early Access readers. For those that are new here: Early Access is a newsletter about video games. We cover the biggest news and the biggest games once per week, first to our Substack subscribers on Wednesdays, and then republished here on Fridays. Let’s get started.

🎮 PlayStation in 2024

This edition of Early Access is oversized, trading headlines for hot takes!

So let’s unveil the crystal ball, and try to divine what is going on with each platform in 2024. PlayStation, you’re up first.

PlayStation Studios. What’s going on at PlayStation Studios? Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 was the only full first-party PS5 game released in 2023, and things aren’t looking much better in 2024. Apart from The Last of Us Part 2 Remastered, which releases January 19, there are zero first-party Sony releases announced for 2024. There are plenty of third-party exclusives – like Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth, Pacific Drive, Helldivers 2, and Rise of the Ronin – and there are a number of possible releases – like SIlent Hill 2, Stellar Blade, and Concord – but the silence from Sony is disconcerting. It’s possible that no PlayStation Studios developers release a game in 2024, but I don’t think it’s likely. I expect things to brighten up, and to get an announcement or surprise relesae from either Sucker Punch, Santa Monica, Bend or Bluepoint at some point in 2024.

Sony Doubles Down on PS Portal. While some may be hoping for a PS Vita 2, it’s more likely that Sony (at least in the near term) doubles down on the success of the PS Portal. According to Circana/NPD, the Remote Play device was the fourth best-selling system of November 2023, behind the PS5, Xbox Series X|S, and Nintendo Switch. It was so successful that Sony quickly sold through its entire inventory. I expect for Sony to bolster support for the PS Portal in 2024, starting with PS Plus game streaming.

A Renewed Focus on Single Player. Apart from Bungie, which will continue supporting Destiny 2 and developing Marathon, I expect Sony studios to return to its single player roots and all-but-abandon their live-service ambitions. How this positions Sony for the future is up for debate, but it’s clear that Sony’s live-service initiative has eaten up a lot of development time at Sony studios like Naughty Dog. With a new CEO at the helm, expect that Sony refocuses on what it does well – single player experiences that define console generations.

The PS5 Pro. PlayStation will release a PS5 Pro in 2024, featuring proprietary upscaling technology like Nvidia’s DLSS, allowing it to push its hardware well beyond what the base PS5 model can do. But don’t expect Sony to announce the PS5 refresh until Q3, ahead of an anticipated November launch.

Studio Acquisitions. Sony will make more studio acquisitions in 2024, in an effort to keep pace with Microsoft, grow its stable of impressive studios, and supplement its first-party lineup in the years to come. One target will be Stellar Blade developer Second Eve Studio, which already has a PS5 exclusive deal with Sony. If Stellar Blade debuts in 2024 and is as successful as I anticipate it to be, I would not be surprised to see Sony scoop up Second Eve and integrate it into the PlayStation Studios family.

🎧 Xbox in 2024

What’s going on at Team Green in 2024?

Games, Games, Games. The fruits of Microfoft’s recent acquisitions will start bearing fruit, and Team Xbox’s first-party studios will release Senua’s Saga: Hellblade 2, Avowed, and Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 to critical acclaim. We will also get reveals related to the next Gears of War, the rumored Doom: Year Zero, and whatever Double Fine is cooking. On the flipside, we will get more radio silence from developers about the Perfect Dark reboot, State of Decay 3, and Rare’s Everwild.

Revenue Surge. Xbox will have a massive revenue surge in 2024, as money related to its acquisition of Activision Blizzard and its major IPs – Call of Duty, Diablo, Candy Crush, World of Warcraft – starts pouring in. That money will go directly towards subsidizing Microsoft’s gaming operations, hopefully offsetting enough risk to give Xbox’s first-party studios greater freedom to take chances.

The Activision Influx. Expect Activision IPs to join Xbox Game Pass throughout 2024. You’ll likely see back-catalog titles added first – titles like classic Call of Duty games, Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater, and Spyro. More recent titles like Diablo 4 and Modern Warfare 3 will also come to the service, but not at first, as Microsoft likely needs time to assess the impact of doing so on those existing live services. That being said: Call of Duty 2024 will launch into Xbox Game Pass on Day One this fall.

A New Console SKU. A recent legal tussle with the US government unlocked a treasure trove of secrets: Microsoft’s plans for two new Xbox consoles. Enter “Brooklin,” a sleek, digital-only beast of an Xbox Series X boasting double the storage and next-gen wi-fi in a cylindrical housing, alongside a souped-up Series S codenamed “Ellewood.” When the info leaked, Phil Spencer threw cold water on the hype, calling the leak “old plans.” But with Sony flexing their new PlayStations, a Switch successor looming, and Microsoft slashing prices on their existing SKUs, it seems likely Microsoft will announce and release a console refresh in 2024.

Revamped Achievements. Xbox will complete a significant overhaul of its achievement system in 2024. These changes have been rumored for some time, and Microsoft acknowledged it was working on the systems in 2021, but since then it’s been radio silence. I expect that Microsoft will implement Platinum-like achievements, separate DLC achievements, and other social enhancements.

First Party Goes Multiplatform. Rumors are swirling that Microsoft might be looking to bring one of its first party titles to a competing console. The most plausible prediction is that Hi-Fi Rush releases on the Nintendo Switch, but we’ve also heard murmers about Sea of Thieves. The news has prompted a lot of debate about Xbox’s priorities. But it’s been pretty clear: Microsoft sees its Xbox console as a “want to have” rather than a “need to have”, and wants its ecosystem to exist beyond physical consoles. Consistent with this, I expect Microsoft to announce more partnerships with other platforms (specifically, Nintendo and VR) and to release some of its recent first-party titles (likely, Hi-Fi Rush and/or Pentiment) on those platforms.

🍄 Nintendo in 2024

What bold moves, hidden surprises, and unexpected twists await the Mushroom Kingdom and beyond?

Nintendo Switch 2. Nintendo sees the writing on the wall, and knows that it will be in for a rough 2024 if it keeps quiet on its next major piece of hardware. Don’t worry, Nintendo won’t. The company has reportedly already showed off its new hardware to developers behind closed doors at Gamescom, and I expect it to release the second-generation Switch in the fall of 2024. How powerful will the system be? It won’t be able to compete with the PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S, or even a decent PC. But it will be the only system that can play Mario or Zelda, so it doesn’t have to. That being said, it will mark a significant improvement over the Switch 1, and if recent court documents are to be believed, it could be roughly as powerful as a PS4 or Xbox One.

Games on the Way. Nintendo is in a similar position to PlayStation, in that it only has a handful of games coming in 2024 that we currently know about, and nothing near the likes of Tears of the Kingdom or Super Mario Bros. Wonder. Apart from a new Princess Peach game, most of the announced titles aren’t heavy hitters, but remakes (Mario vs. Donkey Kong) and HD ports (Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door). But Nintendo isn’t going to release a Switch 2 without a game to showcase its power. Come October, it’ll be seven years since the last 3D Mario game (Super Mario Odyssey). One has to be in the pipeline. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mario Kart 9, Metroid Prime 2 Remastered, or Xenoblade X release as well.

For Your Entertainment. Nintendo is much more than a games company; with theme parks and movies under its belt, and more on the way, it’s a full-blown entertainment studio. Construction on the Nintendo Museum in Kyoto will be finished by March 2024, Universal Studios Japan is opening a Donkey Kong Country expansion to Super Nintendo World in Spring 2024, and construction is currently underway for Super Nintendo World at Universal’s new Epic Universe park in Florida, and expected to open in 2025. That’s a lot of things, and I expect for more partnerships to emerge in 2024. A new Mario movie is a virtual certainty, but other Nintendo properties (like Donkey Kong) are ripe for adaptation as well.

🔥 Quick Hits

  • A Dismal Start. We’ve started 2024 in much the same way that we ended 2023 – with painful layoffs across the video game industry. On Monday, Unity Software announced a further reduction of about 1,800 employees (or 20% of its total workforce) after laying off 265 in November. Tuesday, we learned that Amazon-owned Twitch will cut 500 employees (or 35% of its staff). And yesterday, Discord laid off 17 percent of its staff. We also got word of layoffs at Bossa Studios (Lost Skies) and VR game studio Archiact.
  • Developer Direct. Xbox will hold another Developer_Direct on January 18 where it will give “an inside look at highly anticipated games straight from their developers.” Last year’s Developer_Direct included announcements from games including Minecraft Legends, Redfall, Forza Motorsport, and The Elder Scrolls Online. One of the biggest announcements to come from the Direct, though, was the announcement and shadow drop of Tango Gameworks’ Hi-Fi Rush.
  • Sucide Squad. The final previews for Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League are . . . not good. Eurogamer: “It’s clear Rocksteady is keen to try something new with Suicide Squad while remaining tied to the studio’s past, but as an online shooter with live service elements it’s perhaps trend-chasing more than sticking to what the studio does best.”
  • Indiana Jones. Xbox’s Developer_Direct is set to feature more details about MachineGames and Bethesda’s untitled Indiana Jones game. While originally slated for a late 2022 debut, the latest escapade encountered pandemic-related obstacles. Todd Howard, director at Bethesda, has teased the team’s desire to create a “unique adventure,” and sources close to the development suggest the game is roughly halfway through its journey. But who knows? Could Indy be a surprise release of 2024?
  • The Sex Update. Cult of the Lamb‘s highly anticipated “sex update”, titled Sins of the Flesh, is coming to PC, Nintendo Switch, Xbox, and PlayStation for free on January 16. The update adds new progression systems, weapons, and other “cult-life mechanics,” in addition to, ahem, “sex.” According to the devs, if two cult Followers “love each other very much,” they can run into a tent together, which will sway and move while you hear giggling from the inside, and emerge holding an egg with sinister-looking eyeballs. The new “couple” can nurture the egg for it to hatch, and then indoctrinate their offspring into the cult.

👀 Game Dev Moves

I hope that every employee impacted by recent layoffs falls upward, and I’ll be highlighting some opportunities in game development here every week.

🕹 Upcoming Games

New game releases for the week ahead – January 15 to January 21.

  • Sovereign Syndicate [PC, PS5, XSX] – January 15, 2024
  • Home Safety Hotline [PC] – January 16, 2024
  • Toy Trains [PC VR, PSVR 2, Quest 3, Quest 2] – January 16, 2024
  • Lonestar [PC] – January 18, 2024
  • New Cycle [PC] – January 18, 2024
  • Prince of Persia: The Lost Crown [PC, PS5, XSX, PS4, XBO, Switch] – January 18, 2024
  • Rising Lords [XSX, Switch] – January 18, 2024
  • Another Code: Recollection [Switch] – January 19, 2024
  • The Last of Us 2 Remastered [PS5] – January 19, 2024

View all of the upcoming video game release dates (including DLC) for PS5, Xbox Series X, PC, Nintendo Switch, and more, over on VSG’s release calendar.

That’s all for today. Early Access is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts via email and support VSG, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber via Substack.

Thanks for reading,

Josh

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Josh Lurie
Josh is the founder of VSG, and covers the gaming industry and the latest tech. He developed a deep love for video games playing Super Mario Bros. and Duck Hunt with his dad. On top of developing VSG, Josh is an antitrust attorney in the DC Metro area. He will unashamedly quote Dumb and Dumber in any conversation, and his favorite game is Sea of Thieves.

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